Showing posts with label Playoff Projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoff Projections. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

College Football News, Notes + Playoff Projections, Week 14

First off, in the name of information, I hardly saw anything this weekend. It was Thanksgiving Weekend in Louisville with Girlfriend, so I just caught most of Saturday night's games - USC-Notre Dame, and Tennessee-Kentucky. Ugly games.

That said, it was a relentlessly unremarkable weekend across the country. Sure, rivalry games are always something to pay attention to, but this year, the BCS Top 5 took their rivals behind the woodshed - Auburn, Okie State, Texas A&M, Florida State, and Notre Dame all took it on the chin in the name of poll positioning. Our championship games are set, even the Big XII, whose Pin-the-Tail-on-the-Division-Title-Winner method selected Oklahoma, and the ACC's...whatever matched up BC and unranked Virginia Tech in a meh-fest for the ages.

Given the relative chaos that has reigned the past few years, only one game remains with real BCS implications: Oklahmoma/Missouri. Now, if UCLA springs an upset on Missouri, then that bumps Boise State or Ohio State out of the BCS, since Oregon gets a Rose Bowl spot and USC will pick up an at-large spot. But if Missouri wins, get this: Oklahoma falls out of the BCS altogether. No rebounding in a BCS game; thanks to the BCS's rules, there can only be two Big XII teams, and Texas will no doubt earn a shot at the National Title, and Missouri goes with a Big XII title. So it's either Miami on January 8th or New Year's Eve in San Diego. It's Miami or bust for the Sooner Schooner. Go fig. Karma and trendspotting suggest a USC victory, but I'm gonna go out and say Oklahoma chokes away the BCS's troubles and puts Texas in Miami.

The Heisman finalists were announced today, and the safe money is on Colt McCoy or Sam Bradford. My thoughts? If you want an MVP award, as conventional wisdom dictates, then McCoy gets it for leading Texas through a remarkably tough month-long stretch of games, with only one Texas Tech drive separating them from unbeaten status. But if you want a player of the year award regardless of team record (call it the McNair Trophy), then go with Michael Crabtree, Tech's all-world wideout. Kid's gonna be a star someday.

Kudos to Phil Fulmer for keeping it classy as he departed his job at Tennessee, and props to their fans for doing the same, even as UT's athletic department pissed on Fulmer's grave before it had been dug by waiting a good four minutes to announce the hiring of Lane Kiffin. Sure, you want to get on recruiting , but they ought to at least support the façade that they still cared about the end of this season.

Alright, projection time:

No particularly meaty shakeups, but some interesting matchups emerge, as well as a first for this season: a non-BCS conference at-large team, TCU. They played the entire season under the radar while the pundits feigned interest over a Utah-BYU Holy War to end all Holy Wars.

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • ACC: Boston College

  • Big East: Cincinnati

  • Big Ten: Penn State

  • Big XII: Oklahoma

  • Conference USA: Tulsa/ECU pick 'em

  • MAC: Ball State

  • Mountain West: Utah

  • Pac 10: USC

  • SEC: Alabama

  • Sun Belt: Troy?

  • WAC: Boise State



AT-LARGE:

  • Texas

  • Florida

  • Texas Tech

  • Ohio State

  • TCU



And plug all that to your BCS rankings:

  1. Alabama

  2. Oklahoma

  3. Texas

  4. Florida

  5. USC

  6. Utah

  7. Texas Tech

  8. Penn State

  9. Boise State

  10. Ohio State

  11. TCU

  12. Ball State

  13. Cincinnati

  14. Boston College

  15. C-USA pick 'em

  16. Troy


So you get the following first round:
Troy @ Alabama
Boise State @ Penn State
Ball State @ USC
Cincinnati @ Florida
Boston College @ Texas
Ohio State @ Texas Tech
ECU/Tulsa @ Oklahoma

Mostly the same matchups as last week, though isn't that Ohio State/Texas Tech game juicy?

8-team projections when I feel like it.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Week 13 Playoff Projections

So, as promised last week, here are your Tuesday projections. Not much change, though I shook up some conference champion projections, if only for shits and giggles.

AUTOMATIC BERTHS:

  • ACC: Miami

  • Big East: Cincinnati

  • Big Ten: Penn State

  • Big XII: Texas Tech

  • Conference USA: Tulsa

  • MAC: Ball State

  • Mountain West: Utah

  • Pac 10: Oregon State

  • SEC: Alabama

  • Sun Belt: Troy

  • WAC: Boise State



AT-LARGE BERTHS:

  • Texas

  • Florida

  • Oklahoma

  • USC

  • Ohio State



SEEDING:

  1. Alabama

  2. Texas Tech

  3. Texas

  4. Florida

  5. Oklahoma

  6. USC

  7. Utah

  8. Penn State

  9. Boise State

  10. Ohio State

  11. Ball State

  12. Cincinnati

  13. Oregon State

  14. Miami

  15. Tulsa

  16. Troy


First Round:
Troy @ Alabama
Boise State @ Penn State
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma
Oregon State @ Florida
Miami @ Texas
Ball State @ USC
Ohio State @ Utah
Tulsa @ Texas Tech

The first round doesn't exactly inspire salivation (though the Ohio State-Utah game appears intriguing), but the second round has the potential to be epic - Penn State/'Bama, Florida and Oklahoma, and Texas Tech against either OSU or Utah, plus a Vince Young Show rematch. Lord, can we please, please, PLEASE make this happen?

And now for the Obama Bowl tournament, the 8-team tourney supported by President-elect Barack Obama.

AUTOMATIC BERTHS:

  • Miami

  • Cincinnati

  • Penn State

  • Texas Tech

  • Oregon State

  • Alabama


AT LARGE:

  • Texas

  • Florida

  • Utah


That's right, thanks to their loss to Oregon State, and coupled with Utah's latest rise, USC, along with Oklahoma, Ohio State and Boise State miss out. Not particularly satisfying, now is it?

Your seeds:

  1. Alabama

  2. Texas Tech

  3. Texas

  4. Florida

  5. Utah

  6. Penn State

  7. Cincinnati

  8. Miami


And your Obama Bowl First Round:

Miami @ Alabama
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech
Penn State @ Texas
Utah @ Florida

Two matchups of classic powers, including a potential Penn State/Texas game for the ages, and the juciest game of the first round? The Urban Meyer Memorial Grudge Match. Not bad, but it lacks the pizazz and potential. Plus, NO USC?! OMGWFBBQ.

Alright that's enough of that.

The past weekend was rather ho-hum, doncha think? Though Troy's EPIC FAIL against LSU was pretty mind-blowing. To hold a 31-3 lead on the defending champions? That's something you'll never forget. Blowing it in the fourth quarter? That's something you'll never want to remember.

It's off to the first last week of the season. The Big Ten and Mountain West will have champions, the Big XII will have a clearer answer for its mess, and we we still have solved very, very little. So stayed tuned, folks.